After a modest rise this year, India’s oil demand is expected to decline next year, according to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights. It comes after the World Bank cut its FY23 real gross domestic product growth forecast for India to 6.5% from a previously estimated 7.5% amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. .
“Overall, India’s oil demand is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd in 2022, before slowing to 230,000 bpd in 2023,” the report said.
India’s demand for petroleum products in September was flat month-on-month but rose year-on-year by 334,000 bpd (barrels per day) on a weak base, driven by diesel and oil consumption. gasoline, which increased by 179,000 bpd and 65,000 bpd, respectively.
Modest growth was also seen for other products such as LPG, kerosene/jet fuel, heating oil and minor products, with the exception of naphtha which fell by 21,000 bpd, the report added.
“Mobility indicators remained robust in early October at about 24% above pre-pandemic levels and 0.9% above September levels, according to Google data. According to AirNav Radar Box, domestic flights in India at the start of October were 7% below pre-COVID-19 levels, improved by 3 percentage points from September,” the report said.
International travel fell 16% from pre-pandemic levels in early October, unchanged from levels seen in September.
Meanwhile, retail price inflation in India rose from 6.7% in July to 7% in August and is expected to rise in September due to rising food prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its policy rates by 50 basis points on September 30 as part of its continued efforts to tame inflation and control currency depreciation.
Source: Living Mint